Big Food Pivots to Protein as GLP-1 Drugs Threaten $55 Billion

JPMorgan sees GLP-1 drugs draining $30 billion to $55 billion in annual food revenue by 2030, forcing Big Food to redesign its playbook.

"They just lose the craving, the desire for food," said Bob Nolan, senior vice president of growth science at Conagra, which is testing protein-heavy frozen meals for the estimated 55 million Americans expected to use the drugs by 2035.

Conagra is developing a buffalo mac and cheese with 40 grams of protein, while General Mills built an AI-powered "digital persona" named Lisa to model GLP-1 user preferences and plans to test a protein bar under a new brand called Prot Edge. Nestlé launched Vital Pursuit, a 12-product frozen line priced at $4.99 or less, and a Boost shake with 35 grams of protein.

With one in five U.S. households now including a GLP-1 user, according to PwC, the drugs represent a structural shift in eating behavior that food companies can no longer ignore.

The Appetite Problem

For decades, food companies relied on a proven playbook: cater to taste buds with sugar, salt, and a steadily expanding galaxy of flavors. The drugs' power to erase hunger and satiation threatens to upend that model, where success has often meant selling as much food as possible.

KPMG estimates users consume about one-fifth fewer calories while on the medications. American spending on GLP-1s surged from $13.7 billion in 2018 to $71.7 billion in 2023, according to the American Medical Association. Morgan Stanley projects as many as 55 million Americans, or 15 percent of the population, will be on the drugs by 2035.

A well-documented side effect called dysgeusia can produce an unpleasant, metallic taste in the mouth, and spicy or fatty foods can contribute to discomfort and indigestion, said Richard Doty, president of taste and smell tester Sensonics International and a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's medical school.

Protein as the New Battleground

Doctors recommend that GLP-1 users increase their protein intake to stave off the muscle loss that comes with rapid calorie cutting. That has turned protein into the industry's new battleground.

Conagra's vice president of culinary innovation, Tom Frain, is working on "protein hero" projects like a buffalo mac and cheese with 40 grams of the nutrient, using a custom marinade and grill marks on the chicken breast slices. A prototype frozen burrito with the same protein load was scrapped because the tortilla couldn't hold that much filling.

Nestlé is going further, using its internal AI platform Food Genie, which holds roughly 120,000 recipes, to develop products specifically for GLP-1 users. The company launched Vital Pursuit in May 2024 as a companion line for people using the medicines, and has added collagen protein to its Vital Proteins products, linking the move to concerns about "Ozempic face," the facial volume loss that can accompany rapid weight reduction.

General Mills built an AI-powered "digital persona" named Lisa to model GLP-1 user preferences, and plans to test a protein bar under a new brand called Prot Edge. Kraft Heinz is focusing on "GLP-1 adjacent" consumers — others in the households of drug users — using influencers to suggest ways to top protein with its dipping sauces.

The drugs' staying power is the key question. Early studies show patients generally return to their typical eating habits after they stop taking the medications. But new pill forms of the drugs, previously administered via injections, and expanding health-plan coverage are set to make them more accessible and affordable. Overseas, cheaper generic versions are already hitting store shelves.

Nolan, who has seen gluten-free, vegan, keto, low-carb, and fat-free diets wax and wane over the years, said GLP-1s are different. "Think of all the famous brands you see the ads for today — there could be 200 more of these in five years," he said. "These are here to stay."

For investors, the shift carries a clear implication: traditional packaged-food companies face a structural headwind to volume growth, while those that successfully pivot to protein-focused, portion-controlled offerings may mitigate the downside. JPMorgan's estimate of $30 billion to $55 billion in annual revenue at risk by 2030 works out to roughly three to five times Conagra's current yearly sales.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.