Edgen Crypto·Nov 25 2025, 15:14
[1] MoonPay Grabs Coveted BitLicense Approval In New York (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moonpay-grabs- ...)[2] MoonPay secures New York BitLicense (https://www.moonpay.com/newsroom/ny-bitlicens ...)[3] MoonPay Secures Coveted New York BitLicense - Crypto in America (https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/moonpay-sec ...)
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Nov 25 2025, 14:50
Bitcoin Price Falters at Key Trendline, Enters $94K–$96K Demand Zone
## Executive Summary Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a critical support level between $94,000 and $96,000 following a failed attempt to reclaim a previously held ascending trendline. This price action signals weakening bullish momentum and places the digital asset at a crucial juncture. The market is currently balanced between significant on-chain support and bearish technical signals, leading to a period of consolidation and heightened uncertainty. A decisive move from this zone is expected to dictate the market's direction in the near term. ## The Event in Detail The primary catalyst for the recent downturn was **Bitcoin's** break below a long-term ascending trendline, which had previously served as a structural support level. Following this break, an attempt to rally back above the trendline was met with significant selling pressure, confirming the line as new resistance. This rejection triggered a decline that drove the price directly into the $94,000–$96,000 demand block. This area is considered a significant structural support zone, reinforced by on-chain data showing it aligns with the realized price of mid-term holders, who may act as buyers at this level. ## Market Implications The market's response to the $94K–$96K zone is paramount. If this support level holds, it could form a new base for price consolidation, potentially absorbing selling pressure and setting the stage for a recovery. However, a definitive break below this demand area would signal a significant bearish continuation. In such a scenario, analysts have identified the next major support structure around the $80,000–$82,000 range. A drop to this level would represent a much deeper correction and a test of the broader market cycle's bottom boundary. ## Expert Commentary Technical analysts are presenting conflicting outlooks based on different chart patterns and indicators. Bearish sentiment is fueled by the recent trendline break and the formation of lower highs, which suggest that buying pressure is waning. Some analysts have also pointed to the emergence of a "death cross" pattern on certain timeframes, a classic bearish signal. Conversely, a more bullish long-term perspective highlights the potential formation of a weekly "cup-and-handle" pattern. This is a classic bullish consolidation setup that often precedes a significant upward breakout. Furthermore, on-chain analysis reveals that the market is caught between supply from loss-holding investors above the current price and strong demand from mid-term holders below, explaining the current range-bound activity. ## Broader Context The recent price action is characteristic of a wider market consolidation phase that has been in effect for several weeks. The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between different investor cohorts, with short-term holders and some ETF participants contributing to selling pressure while long-term holders appear to be accumulating. This dynamic of absorption has kept liquidity thin and prevented aggressive price moves in either direction. The resolution of this price compression, whether a breakout above key resistance or a breakdown below the current $94K support, will likely signal the market's next major directional trend.
Nov 25 2025, 14:18
Bitcoin's Puell Multiple Hits Discount Zone, Signaling Potential Bottom as Prices Erase 2025 Gains
## Executive Summary **Bitcoin** has experienced a significant price correction, erasing all gains for 2025 and briefly falling to levels near $86,000. This sharp decline has triggered substantial market liquidations. However, on-chain data presents a counter-narrative, with key indicators like the Puell Multiple and the Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) ratio entering zones that have historically signaled market bottoms. These metrics suggest that despite the negative price action, Bitcoin may be in an accumulation phase, with miner selling pressure remaining low and the asset potentially undervalued relative to historical trends. ## The Event in Detail The primary on-chain indicator flagging a potential market shift is the **Puell Multiple**. This metric, which is calculated by dividing the daily U.S. dollar value of issued bitcoins by the 365-day moving average of this value, has fallen into a "green zone" below the 0.5 threshold. According to analysis from **CryptoQuant**, this level was last seen in March 2025 and has historically preceded major market reversals. This signal is corroborated by **Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit (NUP)** ratio, which recently dropped to 0.476. The NUP measures the proportion of coins held in profit across the network and, at this level, has also historically marked short-term market bottoms. Despite the market turmoil, the actual selling pressure from miners remains low. A recent **Coinbase** research report noted: > If all newly issued bitcoin were immediately sold on the market each day, it would equate to only 900 BTC of selling pressure, which represents just 1%-1.5% of total daily volume. ## Market Implications The recent price collapse below the $90,000 mark resulted in over $500 million in liquidations, wiping out a significant portion of leveraged positions. The event has fueled widespread market fear, with discussions of a potential "crypto winter" re-emerging. However, the signals from the Puell Multiple and NUP ratio suggest this downturn could be a capitulation event that forms a cyclical bottom, rather than the start of a prolonged bear market. A Puell Multiple below 0.5 indicates that the profitability of mining new coins is low compared to the yearly average, a condition that often aligns with periods of undervaluation and subsequent accumulation by long-term investors. If historical patterns hold, the current levels could represent a strategic entry point before a new upward trend. ## Broader Context The current price action is testing a critical support area identified by some analysts as the "max pain" zone, estimated between $73,000 and $84,000. This range is significant because it aligns with the average cost basis for major institutional holders. Notable positions include **BlackRock's IBIT ETF** at approximately $84,000 and **MicroStrategy's** corporate treasury purchases near $73,000. A sustained drop below this zone could trigger further forced selling and ETF redemptions as these large-scale positions fall into an unrealized loss. Conversely, if the historical precedent of indicators like the Puell Multiple holds, this zone could serve as a firm support level, marking the end of the correction and the beginning of a recovery phase. The interplay between institutional cost bases and these reliable on-chain bottoming signals will likely determine the market's direction in the near term.
Nov 25 2025, 13:44
US Retail Sales Growth Slows to 0.2%, Missing Market Expectations
## The Event in Detail Retail and food services sales in the United States registered a modest 0.2% month-over-month increase in September, according to the latest data. This figure represents a significant slowdown from the 0.6% growth recorded in the prior month and came in at half the 0.4% expansion anticipated by market analysts. The total sales figure for the month landed at $733.3 billion. More concerning for analysts is the performance of the core retail sales figure, which excludes volatile components such as automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services. This measure, often viewed as a more reliable gauge of underlying consumer demand, fell by 0.1% in September. This contraction suggests that consumer appetite for discretionary goods is waning. ## Market Implications The immediate market reaction reflected concerns over slowing economic growth. The data miss is expected to exert downward pressure on the **U.S. dollar** as it may temper expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Risk assets displayed sensitivity to the news, with reports indicating a dip in **Ethereum (ETH)** prices below the $2,750 level following the release. The report also contributes to a cautious tone in equity markets, as sustained weakness in consumer spending could negatively impact corporate earnings and revenue forecasts. ## Broader Context and Economic Outlook The retail sales report adds a complex variable to the macroeconomic landscape. It arrives alongside data showing a rise in the headline Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating that inflationary pressures persist even as consumer activity cools. This combination of slowing growth and stubborn inflation presents a challenging scenario for the Federal Reserve as it aims to orchestrate a "soft landing" for the economy. The slowdown in consumer spending, which accounts for a substantial portion of U.S. economic activity, will be a critical factor in the central bank's upcoming policy decisions. Observers will be closely monitoring future data on consumer confidence and employment to assess whether the September report marks the beginning of a more sustained trend.