Bitcoin experienced a 13% pullback from its recent high, leading to analysis of potential support levels and future price movements.

Bitcoin Retreats From All-Time High

Bitcoin's price has fallen approximately 13% from its all-time high reached mid-August, trading below $108,000 as of August 29, according to Coinbase data from TradingView. This pullback has triggered analysis of key support levels and potential future price movements.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin is currently positioned in the middle of its long-term ascending channel, a crucial area for both bulls and bears. Immediate support is identified at $111,350, with major support at $101,465, coinciding with the 200-day SMA, and the psychological $100,000 mark. A failure to hold the $111K support level may lead to a retest of the $100K mark, and potentially open the way toward the $75K support zone. Resistance is noted at $112,142 and the 50-day SMA at $115,648, with a strong resistance zone at $118,616. According to CryptoTicker, a more realistic short-term fall is to the $95,000–$90,000 range.

If we slide through $100,000 and lose $92,000, the conversation may shift toward deeper corrections and range trading, with a long-term bear target of $75,000.

Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Price

Several factors are expected to influence Bitcoin's price action in September. These include ETF inflows, whale-driven BTC selling and ETH accumulation, US investor demand, and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. August saw a monthly net outflow of $751 million from Bitcoin ETFs, while Ethereum ETFs saw $3.87 billion in inflows. On August 29, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of over $126 million, signaling weakness in ETF capital flows. A shift in whale behavior has also been observed, with large holders selling Bitcoin and accumulating Ethereum (ETH). For example, one whale sold 4,000 BTC ($435 million) and bought 96,859 ETH ($433 million) on the last day of August, and sold another 2,000 BTC ($215 million) and purchased 48,942 ETH ($215 million) on September 1.

Institutional Rebalancing and ETF Flows

Analysts suggest the shift in ETF inflows indicates institutional investors may be rebalancing portfolios as Bitcoin's perceived stability becomes more attractive amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, stated this could bolster Bitcoin's price support near $108k and reduce selling pressure in the short term.

Market Outlook and Potential Scenarios

Technical indicators show BTC remains under a descending red trendline, signaling bearish dominance unless broken. The RSI (14) is currently at 45.91, indicating neutral-to-weak momentum. A bullish scenario involves a breakout above $115K–$118K, potentially sending BTC toward the $120K zone. A bearish scenario suggests that failure to hold $111K support may lead to a retest of the $100K mark, and if broken, could open the way toward the $75K support zone. The CME's FedWatch Tool anticipates a rate cut, and crypto investors have historically bought dips near psychological round-number supports. A more realistic short-term fall is to the $95,000–$90,000 range, whereas a crash to $75,000 would necessitate a prolonged bearish macro cycle or a systemic event within the crypto markets.