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Edgen Pro & Expert Plans Are Here: Level Up Your Trades Now

Edgen
· Apr 02 2026
Edgen Pro & Expert Plans Are Here: Level Up Your Trades Now

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NVDA Is One Basket of AI Hardware. Here Are the Other Four, Ranked.

SanDisk is up 3,362% over the past 12 months (Yahoo Finance). Micron is up around 340% in the same window (Yahoo Finance). Both are AI hardware. Neither is NVIDIA. If you call yourself "long AI" but own only NVDA, you're not long AI — you're long one basket, and the other four ran without you. SNDK and MU are the proof of how expensive that miss can be. Here's the map. Five baskets. Where I'd put new money today (Basket 4) and where I wouldn't (Basket 1). Bottom line first. If you can only add to one basket today, I'd add to Basket 4 — Optical Interconnect. Not NVDA. Not HBM. Not foundry. One sentence: AI's bottleneck is shifting from "memory can't feed the GPU fast enough" (the 2024 problem) to "the wires can't connect 100,000 GPUs at once" (the 2026-2028 problem). The market hasn't fully priced this yet. AI-themed funds barely own any of the optical names.
Edgen
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May 15 2026
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Why Earnings Beats Fail in 2026: Edgen's 3-Signal Framework

Something broke in Q1 2026 earnings that contradicts what most retail investors learned in 2023-2024. Affirm reported adjusted EPS of $0.37 against a $0.27 consensus — nearly 40% above the Street — and the stock fell 5%. Coinbase missed revenue by 31% — a catastrophic shortfall by any historical standard — and the stock declined only 2.5%. SoFi beat the quarter and raised full-year guidance, then dropped 15%. Palantir reported 85% year-over-year revenue growth — and went sideways. These are the four prints Edgen Research covered in real time during April and May 2026. Across them, the relationship between an earnings beat and stock direction has visibly decoupled. This is not a noisy small sample — it is a structural change in how the market processes quarterly information. Three signals appeared in every single beat-and-fade case we tracked, and they also predict — in reverse — the rare cases that beat and rally, such as NXP's +18% reaction to its Q1 print. This article is the framewo
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May 14 2026
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Affirm Investor Forum May 12: 4 Numbers That Decide the Stock

Affirm crushed Q3 — adjusted EPS $0.37 against a $0.27 consensus, revenue $1.12B against $1.06B expected, FY26 guide raised to $4.18B-$4.21B. The stock closed Friday at $64.01, down 5%, after sitting flat through the after-hours session. Same thing happened on Q2: beat, then dipped 4.41%. Two consecutive beat-and-fade reactions tell you what the market is actually waiting for, and that thing arrives Tuesday, May 12, 2 PM to 5 PM Eastern, in person in New York and live on Affirm's IR webcast. The forum delivers something Affirm has not given investors since the 2021 IPO: a medium-term financial framework. Five years of "here is the next quarter and a vague long-term ambition" — finally getting structure. Four specific numbers will land on those slides, and those four numbers decide which of three scenarios is playing out at Wednesday's open. They also tell you whether the sell-side's $75-90 zone (Morgan Stanley $79, Needham $90, Oppenheimer $87) is the right anchor, or whether our $95 B
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Coinbase missed Q1 by $70M and posted a $394M GAAP loss — yet the stock dropped just 2.5%. Why the bear case isn't paying out, and the OCC trade still works.

Coinbase Missed Q1 by $70M — Why the Trade Hasn't Broken

Coinbase reported Q1 2026 after the close on Wednesday and the headline was ugly: revenue $1.41 billion versus the $1.48 billion sell-side number, a 31% drop year-over-year. GAAP net loss of $394 million, or minus $1.49 per share, dragged down by $482 million in unrealized losses on the Bitcoin sitting on the balance sheet. Transaction revenue $755.8 million and subscription and services $583.5 million both came in light. And the stock barely moved. COIN closed Wednesday at $192.96, down 2.53% on the day, and gave back another 4% in after-hours. That's not the reaction tape you'd expect on a 31% revenue miss. It's the reaction tape of a stock where the bad news was already in the price. Three numbers nobody put in the headline tell the actual story. Adjusted EBITDA $303 million — the thirteenth straight positive quarter even with the print falling apart. Trading volume market share at an all-time high of 8.6%. Stablecoin revenue $305 million, up 11% year-over-year on USDC growth. Coinb
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May 08 2026
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Affirm Q3 Crushed Estimates. Why Didn't the Stock Move?

Affirm just posted one of the cleanest fintech prints of the quarter. Revenue came in at $1.039 billion versus the $1.012 billion consensus — a +27% year-over-year line. Adjusted EPS hit $0.30 against a $0.17 estimate, nearly double the number Wall Street was modeling. GMV ran $11.6 billion (+35% YoY), the biggest quarter Affirm has ever processed. Management raised the FY26 revenue guide to $4.175–4.205 billion (up from $4.086–4.146B) and lifted the Q4 range to $1.08–1.11 billion. Then the stock did nothing. AFRM popped roughly 2% after-hours on the headlines, faded through the Thursday session, and closed at $67.50, down 0.21%. A beat-and-raise this clean usually moves a stock 5–10%. This one moved less than a quarter of a percent. That non-reaction is the story. We flagged this exact risk in our May 1 piece on the May 12 investor forum — the print itself was likely already priced, and the real binary event is four days away. Q3 was the warm-up. Here's why the tape behaved exactly th
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May 08 2026
ZEC just hit $590 in 3 days — nearly our $600 PT from Monday. Now what? Monero (XMR) at $409 hasn't moved. Here's the privacy coin rotation play.

Monero vs Zcash 2026 — Which Privacy Coin Should You Buy?

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May 06 2026
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Why Zcash Just Broke $400 — Bitcoin’s Younger Sibling

If you watched crypto Twitter on Sunday, you saw the same chart everyone else saw. Zcash (ZEC) — a coin most retail had written off as a 2017 leftover — ripped from the low $300s to $424 in a few sessions. First time above $400 since January. Network value back over $7 billion. About $10.5 million of short positions blown up on the way. It wasn't a meme pump. The week before, Grayscale's Zcash Trust did roughly double its usual volume. The share of ZEC sitting in private, on-chain "shielded" wallets hit an all-time high of 30%. And two of the loudest voices in macro-crypto — Raoul Pal and Barry Silbert — said the same thing in different words: privacy is the next thing the market wants, and Zcash is the cleanest way to own it. Our call on Zcash: Buy, $600 price target. That's roughly 41% above where it trades today. The case rests on three layers — the narrative is real, the on-chain data backs it, and a structural quirk in the privacy-coin market makes ZEC, not its more famous rival M
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May 05 2026
Biren 06082.HK opened +76% in January and has barely moved in four months. The cornerstone lockup is two months out. So is the better Chinese chip bet.

Biren (06082.HK) Stock 4 Months After IPO: GPU vs Photonics Bet

Four months ago, Biren Technology — Hong Kong ticker 06082.HK — opened its first trading day at HK$35.7 against an IPO price of HK$19.60 and closed up 76%. Retail subscribed the deal 2,300 times over. It was the first Chinese GPU startup ever to list in Hong Kong, and the headlines treated it like a NVIDIA-of-China moment. Today the stock sits around HK$36 — basically where it closed on debut. The mania didn't keep going. It also didn't fall apart. What it did was settle, and now we're three months from the first cornerstone lockup and one trading session away from a question almost nobody is asking out loud: does owning Biren still make sense, or is the better Chinese AI chip bet sitting one ticker over at 1879.HK? That second ticker is Lightelligence (1879.HK) — the silicon-photonics company that opened on April 28 and closed +383% in one session. Same week as Biren's quiet 4-month checkpoint. Same end market. Same theme — Chinese AI hardware self-sufficiency. Different physics. We c
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Q1 revenue is going to fall 26%. But while everyone watched the print, Coinbase quietly got something no crypto firm has ever had.

Should I Buy Coinbase Before May 7? The OCC Trust Bank Bet

Most people staring at Coinbase right now are looking at the wrong screen. The screen everyone's watching is Thursday's Q1 print — May 7, after the close. And that one is going to be ugly. Bitcoin fell 22% in the quarter. Ether fell 41%. Global exchange volume is down nearly half from its October peak. Wall Street already wrote the headline: "Coinbase revenue plunges 26% as crypto winter returns." That story is already in the price — COIN sits around $220, basically flat for the year while the S&P grinds higher. The screen nobody's watching is the one that landed two weeks ago, when the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — the federal banking regulator — gave Coinbase conditional approval to operate a national trust bank. First crypto-native company to ever get one. That's not a 90-day story. It's a structural unlock that shows up in models years from now, and Wall Street hasn't moved its targets yet. So the question retail is actually asking is the right one: should I buy C
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May 05 2026
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Palantir Q1 Just Printed 85%. Is a 108x P/E Worth It?

If you opened your phone Tuesday morning and saw Palantir trending, you weren't imagining it. The numbers Palantir put out Monday after the close were the kind that get screenshot and texted around — revenue up 85% year-over-year, US business up 104%, contracted backlog up 134%. For an AI software company, those are the loudest quarterly numbers anyone's posted in 2026. And yet, looking at the same release, our rating on Palantir (PLTR) is still Hold, $160 price target — about 11% above where the stock trades today. That gap is the whole story of this article. The numbers are real. The price is the question. At roughly 108 times forward earnings, the market is already paying for the next four to five years of execution to go right. Below, we walk through what actually happened on the quarter, why the engine is running this hot, and whether buying after a print like this makes sense for a regular investor — or whether the smart move is sitting in your seat. Palantir released first-quart
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May 05 2026

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